Statistical Gastronomy

In recent years, molecular gastronomy has gone from being an obscure style of cooking practiced by a few, zealous chefs to an accepted artform embraced by the greater foodie community. The proponents of this craft seek to infuse chemistry into cooking, often times resulting in the deconstruction of classic dishes. For instance, consider this deconstructed glass of white wine created by Chef Jose Andres. By tasting each of the individual components that are present in the wine, diners come to appreciate the complexity of the product and respect the notion that the whole is in fact greater than the sum of its parts.

Believe it or not, there is a statistical corrolary to molecular gastronomy - conjoint analysis. Conjoint analysis seeks to understand the relative importance of certain attributes in a product by asking respondents to rate the utility of the product as a whole. Using regression analyses, researchers can then determine what truly matters to consumers, and which levels of particular attributes are ideal. Like Chef Andres deconstructed glass of white wine, conjoint analysis demonstrates to us that consumers may not be aware of which components are truly driving their perceptions of a product.

How might conjoint analysis be used in the restaurant industry? Let's say that one is designing a new restaurant and would like to understand the importance of a few key variables: theme (French v. Italian), average check ($20, $30, $40), and presence of celebrity chef (Yes/No). Individuals can then be asked to rate the utility of combinations of the above attributes and those ratings could be analyzed using regressions. After a little bit of statistical gastronomy, the restaurateur will not only know which of the above attributes is most important, but also which level of each attribute is preferred.

Conjoint analysis has been used quite a bit in the hospitality industry; in fact, Courtyard by Marriott was developed through the process. Nevertheless, conjoint has yet to make its way to the restaurant space, perhaps because it is difficult to determine all of the attributes that impact a diner's experience. Going forward, I expect to see statistical analyses such as conjoint becomming more prevalent in foodservice, particularly for major brands. Just as molecular gastronomy has raised haute cuisine to a whole new level, statistical gastronomy can do the same for consumer insights.

The Promotional Web

I just returned from a panel entitled "The Las Vegas Restaurant World" at Hotel Ezra Cornell, an annual tradition at The Hotel School during which hospitality industry executives descend upon Ithaca for a weekend of fun, food, and lively discussion. Given the current state of the economy, the panelists, which included food and beverage luminaries such as Elizabeth Blau, Todd English, Jason Lapin, Damian Mogavero, and Steven Schussler, elected to discuss the restaurant industry in general as opposed to focusing on Las Vegas specifically. And although there is much to report from their discussion, I would like to focus on one comment made by Todd English - the rise of restaurant promoters.

According to Mr. English, restaurateurs have begun to leverage promoters as a channel through which they can spread the word about their restaurants. This is not surprising given the industry's reliance upon word-of-mouth marketing; what is surprising, however, is that the practice is becoming more formal in nature. In order to ensure that these efforts are effective, restaurateurs should leverage the data contained in their POS systems to target the right people for the job.

How might a restaurateur go about identifying and courting the ideal promoter? To begin the process, it is first necessary to determine what the characteristics of an ideal promoter are. In the absence of restaurant-specific data, I would suggest that restaurateurs search for individuals who (a) make reservations for large parties and (b) who spend a significant amount of money while dining. With this definition in mind, transactional data can be analyzed to identify these key individuals and their primary means of contacting the restaurant. Promotions can then be designed in order to encourage them to spread the word about the restaurant.  For example, reservationists can ask guests seeking to make reservations how they heard about the restaurant.  If the guest indicates that he or she discovered the restaurant through a recognized promoter, that promoter would receive credit towards future dining at the establishment and that guest could be designated for special service by management.  By providing both the new guest and promoter with incentives to return, the restaurant will be able to increase repeat patronage.

Although there is always the potential that a promotional system such as the above could be exploited, I believe that its benefits outweigh its drawbacks.  Considering the fact that word-of-mouth is so important in the restaurant industry, it only makes sense to ensure that the practice is occurring in the most effective and cost-efficient manner.  By using transactional data to identify and court promoters as opposed to randomly rewarding certain guests, restaurateurs are much more likely to see a return on their investment.